Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
