Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
